Severe weather and a changing climate

This is an edited extract from How can our environmental consenting system support adaptation of our infrastructure? You can read the original article here.

New Zealand’s cities and communities rely on infrastructure for our health, safety, transport, communication, education and business needs. Most of the time we can rely on the lights working when we switch them on, roads being passable and water coming out of the tap.

During the Auckland Anniversary weekend storm in January 2023, Auckland Airport was closed, more than 3,000 properties lost water supply and more than 26,000 properties lost electricity. Cyclone Gabrielle occurred just weeks later, in February 2023, and cut power to thousands, downed communication lines and led to cancelled flights, ferries and trains. Schools shut across the upper North Island, communities were cut off, houses were destroyed, and widespread flooding wreaked havoc along the East Coast.

The combined cost of asset damage from the Auckland floods and Cyclone Gabrielle was estimated to be between $9 billion and $14.5 billion, and the rebuild is ongoing. We are going to see more and more events like the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods and Cyclone Gabrielle in the coming years.

In this context, it is a welcome step that Parliament has asked the Finance and Expenditure Committee to conduct an inquiry into climate adaptation in New Zealand.

Minister of Climate Change Simon Watts recently highlighted the link between natural disasters and climate change, saying: “Here in New Zealand, we are feeling the impacts of climate change and we are seeing more frequent and severe damaging natural events such as flooding, storms and landslips. Natural disasters are costly, and we need to take steps to safeguard against loss and ensure the things we value most – our communities, jobs, industries and homes – are prepared to withstand the impacts of climate change.”

Watts says a long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate continues to change. The Finance and Expenditure Committee inquiry into an adaptation framework is intended to:

• set out the Government’s approach to cost-sharing
• help communities and businesses understand what climate adaptation investment is planned in their area, and what support will be available to help recover from climate-related events
• improve information sharing
• guide decisions before a severe weather event happens, as well as long-term recovery after such an event

It was promising to see that the motion to establish the inquiry received support from across the House, which means its conclusions are hopefully more likely to be adopted and to endure over time even as governments change. Climate change adaptation is a long-term issue requiring continued focus, rather than being revisited each election cycle.

The Committee has been tasked with preparing a report that identifies the high-level objectives and principles required to support the design of a climate change adaptation framework. This work builds on the inquiry initiated by the previous government Committee into community-led retreat and adaptation funding. The new inquiry’s terms of reference do not specifically reference managed retreat, or the resource management system, which some local government authorities have criticised as inadequate for preventing development in areas prone to natural hazards. However, the approximately 150 public submissions made under the previous inquiry, and the expert working group report into managed retreat, will be considered by the Committee in this new inquiry.

The outcomes of the inquiry should prove useful to directors, particularly in relation to understanding what climate adaptation investment is available, and what support measures will be accessible to businesses to help them recover from climate-related events.

Any legislation required to support the framework is expected to be introduced in early 2025.

In another relevant announcement, the Government has released a new high-level climate strategy, Responding to a Changing Climate’, which sets out its approach to how it will deliver on New Zealand’s climate goals. There are five pillars to the strategy, focused on making sure:

• infrastructure is resilient and communities are well prepared
• credible markets support the climate transition
• clean energy is abundant and affordable
• world-leading climate innovation boosts the economy
• nature-based solutions address climate change

The example of the Government’s plan given under the first pillar is “Delivering a fair and enduring adaptation system that helps New Zealand be ready for climate change and provides clarity on costs”. What this means in practice is unclear at this stage, though we expect more detail to be released. Criticism has been levelled at the strategy, with Labour climate spokesperson Megan Woods stating that the strategy was “flimsy and backwards looking”.

Consultation on the second Emissions Reduction Plan has also just closed. New projections released alongside the Government’s consultation show the country is no longer set to reach the 2050 net zero target, nor the third emissions budget in 2031 to 2035. The figures are a marked departure from projections developed under the previous government, which would have achieved net zero by 2041. Reportedly, if we do not reduce our greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, then the cost to meet the 2030 target in carbon credits is $23 billion, which has not been budgeted for by the Government.

While we wait for adequate national direction or new legislation, infrastructure and housing are still being built in hazard prone areas. In Auckland for example, more than 1400 consents for new houses and supporting infrastructure were granted in flood plains, in the 12 months after the devastating floods last year. Councils are increasingly using RMA instruments such as district plans to influence land use, but the RMA does not provide all of the tools councils need, i.e. a way to change plans faster to address climate change-induced changes and more funding to update natural hazard data and models. RMA plans cannot direct who should pay for adaptation (including managed retreat), and RMA existing use rights complicate council initiatives for managed retreat.

Overall, our current system is not equipped to deal with severe weather events. The process is too slow, ad hoc, and it is reactive rather than proactive. A new national structure and funding system for climate adaptation measures are required to:

• limit the impact of climate-related events in the first instance
• respond effectively and efficiently after the fact

The new inquiry into adaptation and the new natural hazard national direction will give us a good indication of where we are now and how we can move forward. While this is a promising start, swift action is required so we can actually begin to adapt our infrastructure to climate change.

Directors should ensure that they keep up to date with all the regulatory adaptation initiatives that are progressing as well as continue to implement changes so organisations can evolve and adapt to the climate crisis. For example, organisations can conduct climate risk assessments under various scenarios to understand potential disruptions and losses to business which can provide a basis for an adaptation strategy to be developed and implemented for the risks that have been identified.